2/6 Survey: Is the Gender Gap in Voting Really This Big?

The numbers are staggering, and the gap just keeps growing.

From a Quinnipiac Poll in late January:

As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters.

The gender gap is widening.

  • Women 58 - 36 percent support Biden, up from December when it was 53 - 41 percent.
  • Men 53 - 42 percent support Trump, largely unchanged from December when it was 51 - 41 percent

The polling analyst for the university (which conducts regular national polling) had this quote: "The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden." Note the poll is of registered voters and not the smaller subset of likely voters. Data shows women are registered at slightly higher rates than men, so the potential impact of a gender gap is magnified a bit among the registered population. But if these numbers were to prove correct on Election Day 2024, the gender gap would be the largest on record, beating Bill Clinton's 1996 showing (+17). 

Our Survey question is essentially, do you believe it? Do you think women will vote for President Biden in the 2024 Presidential election by a margin as big as 22 percentage points?

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